The HIV epidemic took a heavy toll on South Africa. The signs were there in 1994, when an estimated 380,000 people were newly infected with HIV. Six years on, new infections had reached over half a million a year. All the while deaths from Aids steadily increased to a heartbreaking 270,000 in 2004, according to the Thembisa 4.7 model.

Average life expectancy dropped from 62 years in 1994 to 54 years in 2004.

Since then, there has been impressive progress in reducing Aids deaths thanks to a massive rollout of antiretrovirals which started in 2004.

In 2024 an estimated 7.8-million people are living with HIV, which is 3-million more than in 2004, but 5.86-million people are taking antiretrovirals. The average life expectancy in 2024 is 66.2 years.